Clothing And Home Textile Retail Market Will Maintain Steady Growth
Jul 15, 2019
We believe that the retail market for apparel home textiles will maintain steady growth in 2015; most of the new areas of business and new business development are still in the preliminary planning and even conceptual stages, and it is difficult to make a substantial contribution to the 2015 performance; the e-commerce model has a substantial effect on physical channels. The operational efficiency is improved, and the trend will continue. The contribution of e-commerce business to corporate performance will continue to increase. In recent years, the specific effects of “internal surgery” such as improving internal operational efficiency and refined supply chain management are expected to be further reflected in 2015. The improvement of the profit side of the enterprise will be better than the progress of the income side.
2015 terminal retail and corporate revenue is difficult to significantly improve
In 2014, the growth rate of terminal retail and industry revenue declined slightly, but the steady state of the enterprise has become obvious. We believe that in the context of the downward shift of China's economic growth center in the next few years, the income and expenditure of residents will remain stable in 2015, and the growth level of the retail market of apparel terminals will not be greatly improved. It is expected that the growth rate of terminal retail sales will be slightly higher in 2015. At 10%. 1) In 2014, the growth rate of residents' income and consumption expenditure decreased quarter by quarter, and the growth rate of retail sales of the industry declined slightly; 2) Although the revenue of most sub-sectors rebounded quarter by year, the overall growth of the first three quarters continued to decline compared with the same period of 2013; The data of the Spring/Summer 2015 trade fair has not changed significantly, reflecting the attitude of the franchisees is still more cautious.
The main focus of new business growth: resource matching degree and business synergy
The garment home textile enterprises are actively exploring new business growth points from the aspects of broadening the existing product lines and entering new industries. At present, the expansion process of most new businesses is still in the preliminary planning and implementation and even the concept stage. Although the long-term growth space is broad, It is difficult to have a substantial impact on the contribution of 2015 performance. We are relatively optimistic about companies that have a high degree of matching between corporate control resources and new business areas, as well as high synergies between traditional and new businesses.
Industry model changes drive operational efficiency
The essential effect of the transformation of the industry's business model is the efficiency of business operations. 1) The substitution of e-commerce for physical channels continued. In the first three quarters of 2014, the retail sales of “50” and “100” clothing products increased slightly by 1.5% and 1.7% respectively, and the growth rate declined more than the overall level of social zero clothing. In the same period, the scale of apparel category transactions in the b2c market increased by 53.40% year-on-year. 2) The contribution of e-commerce business to the company's performance will also continue to rise. At present, the proportion of e-commerce revenue of listed companies is basically below 20%, and there is still room for improvement. In 2015, the e-commerce business of apparel home textile companies is expected to maintain rapid growth.
The effect of improving business efficiency
In 2014, the company improved its operating efficiency and achieved initial results. Among them, the net profit growth rate of men's wear, home textiles and leisure in 2014 improved better than revenue. We believe that the specific effects of a series of "internal surgery" implementations such as improving internal operational efficiency and refined supply chain management in recent years will be further reflected in 2015, and the progress of profit margin improvement is expected to be better than the recovery of revenue.
Investment strategy: “One avoidance” and “two main lines”
Maintain the industry's “overweight” rating. It is recommended to evade companies that rely on the concept of “new growth” to drive up valuations in the early stage and whose actual performance is difficult to improve in 2015. Active layout 1. The company has a high degree of matching between resources and new business areas, as well as companies with high synergy between traditional and new businesses. 2. The model transformation progressed smoothly, the internal management reform achieved remarkable results, and the quality targets that made substantial contributions to performance.
